学术论文

      Chebyshev不等式在空间碎片碰撞概率置信度中的应用

      Confidence Level of Collision Probability for Space Debris with Chebyshev Inequality

      摘要:
      空间碎片的碰撞预警与规避能有效避免碰撞事件的发生.碰撞概率是碰撞预警的主要判据,也是航天器规避机动决策的主要依据.由于计算碰撞概率的各相关参数带有误差,导致计算得到的碰撞概率值并不准确,难以做出规避机动决策,因此评估碰撞概率值的可信程度是亟需解决的问题.本文给出了一种碰撞概率置信度的计算方法,利用各影响参数的标准差,通过误差传递的方法计算碰撞概率的标准差,结合单边Chebyshev不等式,给出碰撞概率值大于10-4阈值时的置信度,并结合实际案例进行了分析.
      Abstract:
      A growing space debris population which results to the high collision risk increasingly causes the requirement of research in a congested space environment.It's necessary to make the collision assessment for effectively avoiding collisions.The probability of collision is the main criterion for the collision assessment and warning of satellite against space debris,and is the main reference for the decision of the avoidance maneuver of the satellite.However,the collision probability is not accurate because of the parameter errors which are used to calculate the collision probability,so it is difficult to make decision.Hence,how to evaluate the reliability of the collision probability is the pressing problem.In this paper,a method for calculating the confidence level of collision probability above the threshold value of 10-4 is proposed.By using the propagation of error,the standard deviation of collision probability is calculated,and combining with the one-sided Chebyshev inequality,the confidence level is obtained.The results are also analyzed with practical cases.
      作者: 沈丹 [1] 杨旭 [2] 吴相彬 [2] 刘静 [2]
      Author: SHEN Dan [1] YANG Xu [2] WU Xiangbin [2] LIU Jing [2]
      作者单位: 中国科学院国家天文台 北京100012;中国科学院大学 北京100049 中国科学院国家天文台 北京100012
      刊 名: 空间科学学报 ISTICPKU
      年,卷(期): 2017, 37(4)
      分类号: V412.4
      在线出版日期: 2017年8月30日