学术论文

      基于CO2排放达峰目标的中长期能源需求展望

      A Vision of Medium-and Long-Term Energy Demand Based on CO2 Emission Peak Target

      摘要:
      随着中国经济社会的发展,能源消费与CO2排放规模持续增加,温室气体排放对全球气候变暖影响也逐步加剧.分析展望中国中长期能源需求,研究和提出相应的能源可持续发展战略,是当前研究的热点.采用“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的思路,综合应用动态物质流分析、计量经济、弹性系数和能源系统优化等模型方法构建了中国中长期能源需求展望模型.以2030年碳排放达峰为目标,以碳税为减排驱动因素.设计了3个减排情景,对减排情景下的能源需求和碳排放进行了预测.结果显示:中国一次能源需求量将在2045年前后趋近饱和:一次能源结构将发生根本性转变,南“化石能源为主”向“化石能源为辅、清洁能源为主”转型;电力将取代煤炭成为第一大终端用能,电能替代成为终端能源消费结构转变的主旋律.
      Abstract:
      With China's economic and social development,energy consumption and CO2 emissions continue to increase,and the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the global warming are gradually intensifying.The long-term energy demand forecasting and the corresponding sustainable energy development strategies are the hotspot in present research.Following the idea of'bottom-up'and 'top-down',a medium-and long-term energy demand projection model is established by using such methods as dynamic material flow analysis,econometrics,and elastic coefficient and energy system optimization system.Based on the 2030 carbon emission peak target,the future energy demand and carbon emissions are forecasted under different carbon tax scenarios by choosing the carbon tax as the driving factor and designing three carbon tax scenarios.The result shows that China's energy demand will reach the ceihng in 2045;the structure of primary energy demand will be dominated by non-fossil energy and the boost of renewable energy is the main driver of the transformation;electricity will become the largest final energy and play a dominant role in final energy consumption structure change.
      Author: MA Ding SHAN Baoguo ZHU Fagen
      作者单位: 国网能源研究院,北京,102209
      刊 名: 中国电力 ISTICPKU
      Journal: Electric Power
      年,卷(期): 2017, 50(3)
      分类号: F206 F224.0
      在线出版日期: 2017年4月6日