学术论文

      2016年中国生猪市场分析及2017年展望

      Domestic Pig Market in 2016 and Its Prospect for 2017

      摘要:
      2016年生猪供需缺口仍较大,猪价整体保持高位,生猪价格、仔猪价格、猪粮比价均破历史纪录,是近年来养猪盈利最好的一年。2015年底和2016年的寒潮以及疫情、成本下降等因素推动2016年上半年猪价持续上涨;6—10月受利好因素影响猪价理性回归。预计短期内猪价仍将以小幅持续反弹为主,建议谨慎调整产能结构,养殖户应保持合理的存栏数量和把握出栏节奏,同时加强疫情防控。
      Abstract:
      In 2016, gap between supply and demand was still relatively large, hog price as a whole remained high, prices of pig and piglet and pig grain price ratio all broke historical records, and breeding profitability of pig was the best in recent years. Pig price was boosted up by cold-air outbreak of the end of 2015 and 2016, epidemic situation, lower-cost and other factors in the first half of 2016, then it was influenced by favorable factors to return to reason from June to October. The author expected that pig price would continue to rebound slightly in the short-term, and suggested that the production capacity structure should be adjusted carefully, and farmers should maintain reasonable amount of livestock on hand and grasp the rhythm of slaughter, at the same time, should strengthen the prevention and control of epidemic situation.
      作者: 陈艳丽
      Author: Chen Yanli
      作者单位: 农业部农村经济研究中心 北京 100810
      刊 名: 农业展望
      年,卷(期): 2016, (11)
      在线出版日期: 2016年12月28日